FOMC Watch: Curveball

Summary:

The September US labor report market, which beat expectations across the board, throws a spanner in the recession narrative. Still, the data was not *that* great, and it won’t dispel the notion that the US labor market is slowing down. The FOMC median dot calling for two 25bps rate cuts this year is eminently reasonable. The risks remain tilted towards a 50bps cut in December as one of the two final labor market reports this year is bound to be weak.