AFS Morning Comments & Calendars

25 April 2022

UK ETS Market Outlook: 25/04/2022

The outlook for the UK ETS this week is neutral to bearish on wider market risk. We saw UKAs follow the EU ETS higher last week but potential for recession and industrial shutdowns remains, while…

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EU ETS Market Outlook: 25/04/2022

EUAs last week broke through technical resistance around €81.80 which seems to have triggered buy orders by speculators. On top of that, we’re in the last week before the 30 April compliance deadline, so last…

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22 April 2022

AFS Morning Comment April 22 2022

In today’s Comment we will try to make sense of market pricing for ECB rates by using simple models or rules of thumb to get a sense of where policy rates should be in the…

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19 April 2022

UK ETS Market Outlook: 19/04/2022

The outlook for the UK ETS this week is neutral to bearish. Mild weather should reduce energy demand though there is relatively little renewable generation with wind levels low, so carbon intensive electricity will continue…

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EU ETS Market Outlook: 19/04/2022

As in previous weeks we flag near-term downside risk but retain a neutral view for the week ahead. High commodity prices are forcing some industrial shutdowns or production cutbacks, and threaten to produce more and…

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14 April 2022

AFS Morning Comment April 14 2022

Before we preview today’s ECB meeting, we want to briefly discuss inflation. As we know all too well, inflation readings are high. Inflation readings as in year-on-year percentage increase in the consumer price index. The…

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