For a change, there is less than meets the eye when it comes to the September 2019 ECB easing package. In a nutshell, the ECB isn’t doing much in the way of increasing the dose of monetary stimulus. One only needs to look at the ECB staff forecasts. The new headline and core inflation forecasts are in no way consistent with price stability. • Furthermore, at the press conference Draghi was forced to degrade himself to begging the Euro Area member states for fiscal stimulus. He told journalists that the Governing Council is unanimous that fiscal policy should become the main tool for boosting demand instead of monetary policy. Today’s package (we will discuss the nuts and bolts below) would pack a good punch if fiscal policy is eased significantly for a multi-year period. But, as we’ve pointed out this morning, there are no signs (yet) of a Euro Area wide multi-year investment-driven stimulus package. And if we look back at our July ECB post-mortem, we wrote down that Draghi sounded confident on the prospect of fiscal stimulus. But today he sounded desperate.
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