US Treasury yields are off the lows this morning following yesterday’s very disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI, data which doesn’t bode well for Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls. At 1.47 the 10y Treasury yield is just several bps north of its recent low. At least the 2y is trading at 1.45, meaning that this segment of the yield curve is not inverted. However, the 3-month/10-year yield spread remains deeply inverted at minus 50bps. It has been inverted for 81 days this year, meaning that it’s on track for exceeding the inversion that preceded the 1990-1991 recession (more on that further down below).

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