- Meanwhile in markets, bond yields are literally all over the place while equities remain higher on war optimism. Or peace optimism to be more precise.
- Folks are questioning Russia’s cease fire overtures, specifically promises from the Kremlin that it will scale back operations around Kyiv and Chernihiv. Remember that President Putin announced the end of combat operations twice during the Syrian war while in fact Russian activity only increased after each announcement.
- We are of the (tourist) view that where there is smoke, there is fire. The Kremlin is looking for a way out. That doesn’t necessarily mean a straight line towards peace talks between Putin and Zelensky. The Russians might very well resume its offensive in hopes of achieving a better outcome at the negotiating table. But the path is clear as the Ukrainians trumped all expectations with their excellent resistance and not collapsing in two days as many experts, some Western leaders and – most important of all – the Kremlin had expected.
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