• Meanwhile in markets, bonds are having a quarter end sell-off after all while equities are melting up – angst of the weeks (the modern day Suez canal crisis and the hedge fund blow up) be damned.
  • At pixel time the US 10y had risen to 1.74, up 10bps from yesterday’s low. Are punters expecting a blowout US labor market report on Friday perhaps? The 10y Bund is once again testing ECB President Lagarde’s line in the sand at minus 30bps. Note that Bunds are very vulnerable at these levels as real rates are still lower for the year, even though the ECB is comfortable with a modest increase (and further increases later in the spring when this wave of the pandemic is over). And the improved outlook for growth and vaccines doesn’t square with lower real rates anyway.

 

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