• Meanwhile in markets, equities remain firm – resilient might be a better word – while bond yields loiter near recent lows as the Kremlin is escalating the war in Ukraine. Asian equities are up, with gains ranging from 0.7 percent for the Australian bourse to more than one percent for the Nikkei. That follows a mixed close for US equities last eve. On the charts and when measured by YTD returns, it is still very much a bad year for equities.
  • The US 10y Treasury yield was trading at 1.86, down 12bps from pre-invasion levels. The 2y at 1.46 is down 14bps from pre-invasion levels. Fed rate hike bets have been scaled back modestly though not entirely justifiably so. More on rate hike bets further down below.

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