• Meanwhile in markets, echoes of 2018. Remember how markets went bonkers in 2017? Anyone remember the 100-year bond from serial defaulter Argentina issued in 2017? Then came the real yield surge and risk asset plunge of 2018 as the Fed just started to accelerate the pace of tightening by running down its balance sheet.
  • In the present, the picture is as follows. YTD equity losses range from 0.9% for the Stoxx 600 to 9.5% for the Nasdaq. The S&P is nursing *just* a 5.9% loss. One of the few things that is up are last year’s battered EM equities. The Bloomberg crypto index is down 44% from its late 2021 peak. At this time in 2018, it was down from the peak. Credit on both sides of the Atlantic is holding up though, and the YTD widening of spread doesn’t even deserve mentioning here. At least not yet. Commodities are still holding tight too, with crude still up more than 10% for the year while overall commodities are up by about 7% despite the dollar having most of this year’s losses.

 

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