Can the money market curve become inverted without pricing in a high likelihood of an ECB deposit rate cut? Put differently: is it possible for Euribors to settle consistently below the deposit rate and ESTR without expectations of a rate cut priced in? Consider the relationship between excess liquidity net of tiering and the settlement of 3-month Euribor since the settlement of the June 2020 TLTRO (the first TLTRO at minus 100bps). The relationship is almost too perfect:

 

 

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