YTD we haven’t seen much movement in the bond market, with US Treasury and German Bund yields flattish across curve. That’s despite a consensus having emerged that we will see a rebound in global growth this year; the US-China trade détente becoming entrenched; and further gains for equities, which aren’t (yet) mirrored in Eurozone and US credit. Compared to the 2019 close Bund yields are still where they were at the end of 2019, with the 10y trading at minus 18bps. The US 10y remains range-bound, trading at 1.865. While Fed officials repeat that they’re on hold and they would like to see inflation actually moving to or even beyond target, USD OIS continue to price in a full 25bps Fed rate cut.
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