• Tensions over Ukraine have been dialed down a notch because of remarks made by the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK over the weekend that maybe his country shouldn’t join NATO. Yesterday afternoon, the Kremlin seemed all too eager to grab that lifeline. If you take the Kremlin at its word (big if), they will intensify talks with the US on security and bring to an end some of the mass exercises along the border. However, note that it is not clear if troops will actually return to their bases, which is the most important part.
  • Our view is that the US is simply calling Russia’s bluff with the February 16 invasion deadline. We also don’t believe that the Kremlin wants to invade, but if they do for some stupid reason, at least the US put itself on the right side of history (for now at least).

 

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