Meanwhile in markets, risk-off sentiment pervades on – you guessed it – Ukraine fears. That has resulted in lower bond yields, stiff losses for equities, a stronger dollar and crude oil prices extending last week’s gains.
At pixel time the US 10y Treasury yield was trading at 1.96, down from Friday’s high of 2.06. Rate hike odds are being scaled back relatively tepidly, resulting in an even flatter yield curve. The 2y10y spread was trading at 40bps, which gives the Fed precious little room to raise rates without over-tightening. And speaking of Fed rate hikes, the forward curve now peaks at 1.95, down greatly from the post-Bullard panic, when it briefly peaked at 2.34.