Today’s Comment is about yield curvology (what else). During the prior episode of yield curve flattening – the 2017-2019 period – we dedicated several comments to yield curve behavior during a Fed rate hike cycle. We looked at the two leading yield curve indicators that have consistently heralded recessions in the post-War era. To be more specific: the post-1980 era dubbed the Great Moderation because of the low and stable inflation regime after the Volcker shock.


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