In what is shaping up to be the final ‘real’ trading week of the year, we have no less than five central bank meetings (Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Norges Bank and Bank of Japan); more Brexit talks; and the preliminary Markit PMIs for December. Starting with the PMIs, the Eurozone PMIs should confirm the economy returned to contraction in the fourth quarter because of lockdowns and lower mobility. The fall in GDP should be relatively moderate: 1% to 2% on a quarterly basis. However, the weakness is likely to carry over in the first quarter as governments will likely keep rules tight until a sufficient percentage of the vulnerable population has been inoculated.



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