The Trump giveth and the Trump taketh. Bond yields are off the lows after President Trump temporarily delayed tariffs on about a sixth of $300 billion of imports on what we believe are narrow tactical reasons, which we will explain further down below. At 1.67 the US 10y Treasury yield is roughly halfway between yesterday’s low and high. Furthermore, at minus 32bps the 3m10y yield spread remains dangerously inverted, while at 4bps the 2y10y spread is just one shock away from inversion.

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